1.2. Die Diskussion durch EuroMOMO
EuroMOMO weist im Bulletin der Woche 39/2022 auf den rätselhaften
Sachverhalt ausdrücklich hin:
"Note on observed excess mortality in the age group 0-14 years
during 2021-2022
Since mid-2021, some unusual excess mortality signals have been observed
in the age group of 0-14 years. EuroMOMO is looking into the possible
explanation for these signals, in consultation with participating
countries in the network.
From a methodological perspective, it is important to note that the
mortality baseline applied currently in the EuroMOMO excess mortality
algorithm does not include any mortality data from 2020, 2021 or 2022,
which will be affected by varying excess mortality associated with the
overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic including varying restrictions,
which could bias the 'normal' level of mortality.
Furthermore, it should again be stressed that EuroMOMO does not collect
any data beyond mortality data to answer questions about causality in
observed mortality signals. Therefore, EuroMOMO’s outputs should not, in
any way, be cited as 'evidence' for any underlying causes of unusual
mortality patterns."
4
Im Bulletin der Woche 43/2022 heißt es dazu:
"Cautionary note on cumulated excess mortality reported by EuroMOMO for
the pandemic years
The excess mortality is calculated by EuroMOMO every week as the
difference between the observed number of deaths and the estimated
expected number of deaths (the baseline). The cumulated excess mortality
is shown for each calendar year by week and is calculated by adding up
the weekly excess number of deaths over the weeks of surveillance.
Because of the unexpected and varying mortality experienced during the
COVID-19 pandemic, the calculated baseline applied in the EuroMOMO
estimation of excess number of deaths do [sic!] not include data from
2020 and onwards, as these data will distort the estimated level of
baseline number of deaths.
Due to the exclusion of data from the COVID-19 pandemic, the trend
incorporated in the statistical estimation of the baseline are [sic!]
presently forecasted [sic!]
beyond the
intended duration. This prolonged forecast has introduced an
increasing bias over time, which can cause incorrect estimations of
the excess mortality, particularly when the numbers are cumulated. (Hervorhebung
durch R.W.)
Because of this enhanced bias when cumulating data, the cumulated
outputs should not be considered reliable at this point and must be
interpreted very cautiously.
An example is number [sic!]
of deaths in the age group 0-14 years, where the EuroMOMO
countries in the years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic experienced a
decrease in mortality. The model extends this declining baseline
mortality in a linear fashion. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there
was a mean of 361 deaths per week in this age group. In week 40,
2022, there is approximately 8.5% bias due to this linear trend
meaning that the expected number of deaths (the baseline) is
predicted to be 29 deaths lower than in week 1, 2020. This means
that even though the number of reported weekly deaths is equal in
week 40, 2022 and week 1, 2020, the lower baseline in week 40, 2022
means that there will be 29 deaths higher excess mortality in this
week. When cumulating the weekly number of excess deaths, this bias
due to the extension of the linear trend in the baseline gets high
and may therefore lead to incorrect estimates. During the COVID-19
pandemic the lock-down period (week 1, 2020 to week 21, 2021) had a
mean of 326 deaths per week and the following period (week 22, 2021
to week 40, 2022) had a mean of 345 deaths per week which both are
lower than the average of 361 deaths per week observed in the period
before the COVID-19 pandemic (week 1, 2018 to week 52, 2019). In
other words, the EuroMOMO mortality surveillance system does
actually not detect more deaths among the 0 to 14-years old during
the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic than in the period before the COVID-19
pandemic, even if the cumulated outputs reported on the EuroMOMO
website suggest so. (Hervorhebung durch R.W.)
In summary, the bias in the weekly estimates of excess number of deaths
are still relatively small and considered to be within reasonable and
acceptable levels to be used in accordance with its initial purpose,
i.e. evaluating weekly changes in mortality.
The EuroMOMO hub, together with the participating countries, are
working on solutions to mitigate the bias; however, a revised model is
not expected to be ready for use in 2022."5
Zusammengefasst: Es gibt in dem Modell der erwarteten Todesfälle aus
der langjährigen Erfahrung der Verringerung der Kindersterblichkeit
ein deutlich erkennbares "Gefälle" von links nach rechts: Man ging
bisher erfahrungsgemäß davon aus, dass die Sterblichkeit dieser
Altersgruppe ständig zurückgeht und hat entsprechend die
Berechnungsmethode der Übersterblichkeit darauf eingerichtet.
Nun sterben tatsächlich nicht mehr Kinder, als vor der
Pandemie, aber - mit Ausnahme des ersten Jahres der Pandemie, als der
Rückgang der Todesfälle bei Kindern gravierend war - setzt sich
nunmehr der bisher übliche Rückgang der Kindersterblichkeit nicht
fort. (Würden die Daten aus der Pandemie in die Berechnung
einbezogen, was sie bisher nicht werden, ergäbe sich sogar ein noch
stärkerer Rückgang der zu erwartenden Kindersterblichkeit,
statistisch gleichbedeutend mit einer noch stärkeren Erhöhung der
gegenwärtigen Übersterblichkeit dieser Altersgruppe.)
Man beabsichtigt, das Problem durch eine neue Berechnungsmethode zu
lösen.
Hieß es im Bulletin 39/2022 noch (Siehe oben!): "Since
mid-2021, some unusual excess mortality signals have been observed
in the age group of 0-14 years. EuroMOMO is looking into the
possible explanation for these signals (Hervorhebung durch
R.W.), in consultation with participating countries in the network",
wird nun nur noch nach einer statistisch-technischen Erklärung des
Endes des Rückganges der Kindersterblichkeit gesucht: "The EuroMOMO
hub, together with the participating countries, are working on
solutions to mitigate the bias; however, a revised
model (Hervorhebungen durch R.W.) is not expected to be
ready for use in 2022." (Siehe oben!)
--->Weiterlesen: 2. Die Übersterblichkeit der
Kinder in Spanien
(Un)Publications