Reinhard Wagner

I appreciate hints on errors and suggestions for improvement:
r_a_wagner@gmx.de

In order to be able to perceive possible unusual phenomena, we will take into consideration the evolution of excess mortality

• from 2017 to 2022, annual and monthly perspectives: inter-annual changes are important, but also between periods of the same year and between the same periods of different years.
• in Spain and the Canary Islands with their respective peculiarities.
• in the population as a whole and in the age group 0-14 years.

Two methodological facts should be highlighted:

1. Regarding expected mortality, it is important to know that "Each year's estimate is calculated based on previous years. This is the reason why there can be observed a jump in the estimates at the beginning of the year."²

At the national level, for all sexes and all ages, the corresponding jumps are as follows:
2016/17: 1287,01 -> 1287,57: 0,56
2017/18: 1316,61 -> 1310,04: -6,57
2018/19: 1341,65 -> 1332,71: -8,94
2019/20: 1361,32 -> 1330,37: -30,95
2020/21: 1341,55 -> 1333,40: -8,15
2021/22: 1380,91 -> 1407,40: 26,49
2022/23: 1374,51 -> 1424,84: 50,33³
It can be observed that the strong excesses since 2020 have had consequences for expected daily deaths. From 01/01/2021 to 01/01/2023 they have been increased by 91.44 persons per day which is equivalent to 6.9%.
Excess mortality statistically decreases correspondingly.

2. In MoMoISCIII, with its age cohorts 0-14 and 15-44 years, the latter comprising 29 (!) years, an unusual recent increase is only perceived in the cohort of boys and girls, but not in the 15-44 years cohort (contrary to the European level).

In the INE data (see below, 1.2.2.), there are unusual changes starting in 2020/2021 up to 24, and - in 2022 - even up to 39 years of age.



---> Continue reading: 1.2.1.1. 2017 - 2022
Comparison between the population as a whole and the age group 0-14 years